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Midterms 2026: Why Stocks Rallied and Oil Fell After the Vote
The president's party lost control of Washington in the November 3 midterms, triggering a massive +1,500-point Wall Street rally and a -9.2% plunge in Brent crude. Here is the forensic market breakdown: why divided government cuts risk premiums, who won and lost, and what signals to monitor next.
By Davi Martins · 8 min read · ▶ Episode
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EPISODE
Midterms 2026: Why Stocks Rallied and Oil Fell After the Vote
The president's party lost control of Washington in the November 3 midterms, triggering a massive +1,500-point Wall Street rally and a -9.2% plunge in Brent crude. Here is the forensic market breakdown: why divided government cuts risk premiums, who won and lost, and what signals to monitor next.
▶ Episode · 8 min read
Strait of Hormuz: Who Is Allowed Where? (Oil Above $115)
Month nine of the Hormuz crisis: verified limpet-mine attacks, IRGC transit fees, UNCLOS transit passage disputes, bypass pipeline limits, and Brent pushing $117. An operational assessment of what is confirmed versus claimed.
6 min read
EPISODE
Binance Hack: $6.3B Drained, "No Key Leaked"
Binance lost roughly $6.3B from hot wallets across 10 blockchains without a private key leak. An operational breakdown of the DevOps entry point, EIP-7702 batch delegation, stablecoin freezes, DPRK attribution, and institutional defense checklists.
▶ Episode · 7 min read
EPISODE
Israel’s Coalition Deadlock: Who Can Count to 61?
With the Knesset divided between Netanyahu's 53-seat bloc, Eisenkot's 48, and Arab parties surging to 19, neither major camp holds a natural majority. An operational breakdown of the four pathways to 61 seats—or a return to the ballot box.
▶ Episode · 5 min read
EPISODE
The Fed Held Rates Before the Midterms. Next Move: A Hike?
The FOMC kept benchmark rates at 3.75%–4.00% in a 10-2 vote, but two dissenters pushed for an immediate hike. As Capitol Hill faces a midterm collision, the cost of capital is setting the real political agenda.
▶ Episode · 4 min readChokepoints & Threat Telemetry
Strait of Hormuz
21 miles at narrowestHandles roughly 20% to 30% of total globally traded petroleum liquids, making it the premier energy lifeline of the global economy.
Highly susceptible to asymmetric naval interdiction, sea-mine deployment, surface-drone attacks, and state-backed tanker seizures due to its restricted shipping lanes.